Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Indonesia is currently entering the peak of the dry season. This has its own negative impacts, such as forest and land fires (Karhutla), as well as drought in several regions, including Kalimantan, Java, Sulawesi, North Maluku and West Papua.
The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) said that from July to August 2023, rain in Indonesia will gradually decrease in southern Indonesia. This indicates that the dry season occurs consistently.
Forest or land fires and drought are not disasters that result in loss of life. However, the community experienced significant impacts such as scarcity of clean water and crop failure.
BRIN Center for Climate and Atmosphere Climatology Researcher, Erma Yulihastin, said that the most worrying conditions occurred on the island of Java. The reason is, in certain areas on the island of Java, the dry season tends to be drier than normal conditions.
On the other hand, he said that the decrease in rain in southern Indonesia also has a close causal relationship with the positive El Nino and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) phenomena which continue to strengthen significantly.
“Predictions of El Niño and positive IOD from various global models show the potential to continue to trigger long dry conditions. This could result in the potential for forest and land fires (forest and land fires) and crop failure in Java,” said Erma to CNBC Indonesia, Saturday (9 /9/2023).
According to Erma, dry conditions due to minimal clouds caused by El Nino and positive IOD are exacerbated by cooling sea surface temperatures in southern Java, as well as significant warming.
“Cooling sea temperatures create areas of high pressure making it difficult for clouds to form in Java,” he said.
“A review of data from the last decade shows that there was regionally significant warming on the island of Java during July compared to the previous decade,” he continued.
Erma also revealed that currently the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signal appears. If this happens, he said, then El Nino has the potential to continue.
El Nino peak
Meanwhile, Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Dwikorita Karnawati separately said that El Nino is predicted to remain at a moderate level until December 2023-January-February 20234. At the same time, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to last until the end of 2023.
“From the results of monitoring and analysis, it will not increase towards a strong (El Nino). However, it will decrease further, namely in November-December 2023. El Nino will still persist until February 2024 but is already heading towards weakness. Next year, in March, it will still be El “Nino, however, is already weak and moving towards neutral,” said Dwikorita.
“God willing, next November, winds from Asia will come in and bring water vapor. As a result, the influence of El Nino due to the effects of the Pacific Ocean, plus the influence of the Indian Ocean, will be lower. Because the winds from the west or the Asian monsoon, it means it is inferior to the rainy season is entering,” he concluded.
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